"King's Speech," "Social Network" lead Oscar picks

By Stephen Galloway

Wed Feb 23, 2011 9:29pm EST

LOS ANGELES (Hollywood Reporter) - Who will take home Oscar statuettes on Sunday. Based on behind-the-scenes info, The Hollywood Reporter picks the winners in the key races.

BEST PICTURE - "The King's Speech"

Three factors favor the Weinstein Co. film over its only serious rival, "The Social Network":

Precedent: "Speech" scored wins at the producers, directors and screen actors guild awards. True, it lost to "Social Network" at the Golden Globes, but the Globes are hardly a litmus test for the Oscars anymore.

Voters' Ages: Academy members average out at 57, meaning they're far more likely to identify with "Speech's" middle-aged heroes than "Social's" young cast.

The Voting System: In the Best Picture race, voters rank the 10 nominees in order of preference; if no movie gets more than 50 percent of first-place votes, the bottom vote-getters are eliminated and their votes transferred. So it's important to be placed second and third on lots of ballots, rather than just be No. 1. Being widely liked counts more than being deeply loved. And a whole lot of voters really like "Speech."

ACTOR - Colin Firth, "The King's Speech"

A year after he lost to Jeff Bridges (Firth was up for "A Single Man," Bridges for "Crazy Heart"), the two are in competition again. This time, Firth is a lock. He has scooped all the major awards so far, and there's little chance he'll lose when the Oscar envelope is opened. Among the other nominees, Javier Bardem is too dark in "Biutiful," Jesse Eisenberg too young in "Social Network" and James Franco's actions in "127 Hours" just too plain gruesome.

ACTRESS - Natalie Portman, "Black Swan"

Many insiders believe Annette Bening will win for "The Kids Are All Right," thanks to the support of the Academy's older voters. She'll be helped by her place on the board of governors, respect for her body of work and sympathy for three previous losses. But other veterans have lost to fresher faces: Remember Marion Cotillard's win over Julie Christie in 2008 and Juliette Binoche's over Lauren Bacall in 1997? It's a close race, but Portman has the showier role; that and the fact that she won the SAG Award get her the Oscar.

DIRECTOR - David Fincher, "The Social Network"

He lost at the DGA, but he's our pick for the Oscars. Why? The DGA has a huge TV contingent; they respected Tom Hooper's craftsmanship on "Speech," but Fincher's visual mastery means more with the Academy. Bad sign for Hooper: Even BAFTA opted for Fincher over his British rival.

SUPPORTING ACTOR - Christian Bale, "The Fighter"

Play ugly, play period and play with an accent. Bale does all three in "The Fighter." Add the fact that he's won nearly every other award, except BAFTA, and he's a lock. "Speech's" Geoffrey Rush won in 1997 for a more memorable lead role in Shine, but that will work against him as the Academy rarely gives actors a second Oscar.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS - Melissa Leo, "The Fighter"

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Judge tells Lindsay Lohan guilty plea means jail

By Jill Serjeant

LOS ANGELES | Wed Feb 23, 2011 7:55pm EST

LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - Lindsay Lohan was warned on Wednesday that any plea bargain on her jewelry theft charge would involve jail time, but the troubled actress seemed set on rejecting any deals and opting instead to risk a trial.

Lohan, 24, was given until March 10, to consider a plea deal offered by prosecutors on a charge that she walked out of a Los Angeles jewelry store in January without paying for a $2,500 necklace.

Terms of the deal were not disclosed at Wednesday's hearing -- the latest in a series of trips to court that have halted Lohan's once promising movie career.

But celebrity website TMZ.com, citing unnamed sources connected to the case, said prosecutors want Lohan to plead guilty and serve six months in jail to avoid a possibly longer sentence if convicted at trial of stealing the necklace.

Lohan and her lawyers had been hoping for an arrangement that would avoid any more time behind bars. The actress spent two weeks in jail last summer on a probation violation in a 2007 drunk driving and cocaine conviction.

But Los Angeles Superior Court Judge Keith L. Schwartz told her sternly that "this case does involve jail time. Period. If you plead (guilty) in front of me and the case is resolved in front of me, you are going to jail, period."

Lohan pleaded not guilty to grand theft at an initial hearing earlier in February, and has told friends she believed the necklace was on loan.

Schwartz said on Wednesday he doubted Lohan and her lawyers would accept a plea deal. "I get the impression you are not going to accept the (prosecutors') offer, okay. I don't have a crystal ball, and I'm not privy to any inside information, but that is the feeling that I got."

TMZ.com reported that Lohan told a friend after leaving the courtroom she was not guilty and would not accept going back to jail. She has until March 10 to consider her response.

"I don't care that you are Lindsay Lohan versus John Doe," Schwartz lectured the "Mean Girls" actress. "You will be treated exactly the same as anyone else, no better or worse."

Lohan, dressed in cream pants and a low-cut black blouse, said little during Wednesday's hearing, conferring quietly with her attorney and answering the judge, "yes, your honor," when asked if she understood what he said to her.

Lohan faces a separate court hearing before a different judge in her 2007 drunk driving conviction. She remains on probation in that case and in January completed a court-ordered three month stay in rehab -- her fifth stint in treatment in three years.

Schwartz said he would recommend psychological counseling for Lohan as part of her sentence, telling her "I don't want you to be a repeat offender....I want you to get on with your life and move on."

Lohan made her name as an 11-year-old in the Disney movie "The Parent Trap" and went on to have hits with "Freaky Friday" and "Herbie Fully Loaded".

But she lost her lead part in a movie about 1970s porn actress Linda Lovelace while she was in rehab last year.

(Editing by Christine Kearney and Bob Tourtellotte)

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Paltrow to join Coldplay husband in UK charts

LONDON | Wed Feb 23, 2011 3:42pm EST

LONDON (Reuters) - Actress Gwyneth Paltrow looks set to enter the British music charts when the weekly ranking is confirmed, entering a domain normally dominated by husband and Coldplay lead singer Chris Martin.

Boosted by her appearance on the "Glee" television series aired this week in Britain, the 38-year-old Oscar winner is at number 24 with her version of "Singing in the Rain/Umbrella" and at number 29 with a cover of Cee Lo Green's "Forget You."

Combined with a third song which she performs on the TV show, tracks featuring Paltrow have sold more than 10,000 copies, according to midweek data provided by the Official Charts Company. The final chart positions are confirmed on Sunday.

Elsewhere, Grammy-winning British singer Adele looks set to retain her position at number one in the singles chart with "Someone Like You," the song she performed at last week's Brit awards.

And she looks set to top the album chart too with "21," so far outselling the rest of the top five combined.

Official Charts Company managing director Martin Talbot said: "The impact of Gwyneth Paltrow and the continuing Brits effect demonstrates how powerful TV can be in influencing music tastes and interests in the digital world.

"The Brits downloads started selling immediately after they were performed on TV, and the instant impact of this week's 'Glee' performances underlines the same power."

(Reporting by Mike Collett-White, editing by Paul Casciato)

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Lindsay Lohan warned of jail time in jewelry case

LOS ANGELES | Wed Feb 23, 2011 1:09pm EST

LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - Troubled actress Lindsay Lohan on Wednesday was given two weeks to consider a plea deal in her jewelry theft case and warned by a judge that she faced jail time if she decided to plead guilty.

Lohan was told to return to a Los Angeles court on March 10 to either accept a plea deal offered by prosecutors, or go ahead with a full trial.

"We are not going to be able to resolve the case today," Los Angeles Superior Court Judge Keith L. Schwartz said after meeting behind doors with attorneys for the two sides.

But he warned Lohan, 24, that if she accepted a plea deal on the grand theft charge "this case does involve jail time. Period. If you plead in front of me and the case is resolved in front of me, you are going to jail, period."

Lohan is accused of walking out of a Los Angeles jewelry store in January without paying for a $2,500 necklace. She pleaded not guilty at an initial hearing earlier in February.

Schwartz did not give details of the plea deal offered to Lohan, nor indicate how much jail time prosecutors want her to serve.

"I don't care that you are Lindsay Lohan versus John Doe," he told the "Mean Girls" actress sternly. "You will be treated exactly the same as anyone else, no better or worse."

Lohan, dressed in cream pants and a low-cut black blouse, said nothing during Wednesday's hearing.

If she rejects the plea deal offered by prosecutors, she will move ahead with a formal trial on the necklace theft charge, which would result in prison time if she was convicted.

Lohan faces a separate court hearing before a different judge on Friday for her 2007 drunk driving and cocaine possession conviction, which has halted her once promising Hollywood movie career.

She remains on probation for that conviction and in January completed a court-ordered stay in rehab -- her fifth stint in treatment in three years.

Schwartz said that if the jewelry theft charge is resolved in his court, he would recommend psychological counseling for Lohan as part of her sentence.

"I don't want you to be a repeat offender," he told her. "I want you to get on with your life and move on."

Lohan made her name as an 11-year-old in the Disney movie "The Parent Trap" and went on to have hits with "Freaky Friday" and "Herbie Fully Loaded".

(Reporting by Bob Tourtellotte; Editing by Jill Serjeant and Christine Kearney)

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Oscar is golden, but film business shows some tarnish

By Alex Dobuzinskis

LOS ANGELES | Wed Feb 23, 2011 11:54am EST

LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - Oscar week is upon Hollywood and the champagne is flowing freely at numerous parties celebrating the world's top movie honors, but when the film industry wakes up with a hangover from Sunday's awards, it faces a cold reality.

Digital technologies are rapidly changing the way movies are delivered to consumers. DVD sales are continuing their multi-year decline with no end in sight. Theater attendance is off a whopping 23 percent so far in 2011 compared to the same point one year ago. And not even 3D is saving it, anymore.

Financial and analysts say movie makers and distributors need to keep up with rapidly changing consumer behavior in an era when entertainment is cheap and readily available on the Internet. Many in Hollywood agree, and are working to change. But profitable new ways of doing business have been slow to come, and the consequence could be an industry on the decline in much the same way as music industry was in the 2000s.

"The trends that we see today are similar in many ways, although I don't think we're the same as the music industry," said Mitch Singer, chief technology officer for Sony Pictures Entertainment, a division of Sony Corp. "Revenues are declining, people are finding other ways to access our content," he said.

Attendance at U.S. and Canada theaters so far this year is down to 173,000 tickets sold compared to 225,000 for the same time period in 2010 -- a decrease of 23 percent, according to tracking firm Hollywood.com Box Office.

Worse, consumers bought only $10 billion in home video entertainment products in 2010, compared to $14 billion in 2004 when the DVD market was booming, reports IHS Screen Digest.

'ARE STUDIOS DEAD?'

Jeffrey Korchek, vice president of legal and business affairs at Mattel Inc, recently wrote an opinion piece for The Huffington Post titled "Are Studios Dead?" in which he argued movies are becoming low-value commodities because companies such as Netflix and Coinstar's Redbox make renting so cheap.

Redbox rents movies for $1 a day at kiosks, a price studios grumble about, and Netflix, with some 20 million subscribers, lets consumers stream all the movies they want for $7.99. Amazon.com this week rolled out a streaming movie service for customers who pay $79 a year for free shipping on other items.

Overall spending in home entertainment rentals has declined to $6.3 billion last year from $8.6 billion in 2001, according to IHS Screen Digest.

"Where is the movie business' Steve Jobs, the person who knows what people want to see before they do, knows that giving content away for free on the Internet isn't such a good idea and who creates excitement, brand loyalty and an enduring corporate culture?" Korchek wrote.

But if there is no single superhero leading the industry, the studios are taking some steps to secure the future.

They have invested in 3D and looked at ways consumers can receive movies in homes faster, as well as created systems for selling digital copies of films directly to customers.

There are now 8,455 screens with 3D technology in the United States, accounting for over 20 percent of all screens, according to the National Association of Theater Owners.

Thanks in part to higher ticket prices of $3 or more, 3D movies could account for 30 percent of box office results in 2011, said Eric Wold, an analyst with Merriman Curham Ford.

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